Thursday, November 29, 2007

Presidency or Taef, Stability or Civil War

As you may know, there are two facets of the problem we have have, an internal one and a regional - international one. As for the global view, lebanon is the barometer of conflicts and crisis in the region and key players there have a say in this country and the situation here reflects in one sense or another the regional turmoil. Thus, complexities that may rise regionally will show in increasing tensions in Lebanon. Internally though controversial, I believe that the deadlock on presidency does not reflect the real problem. It is actually more related to the issue of a new cabinet, the real executive power. There comes the deadlock as the problem is not that of a cabinet but that of the confessional system and power shares accross lebanese sects. The issue that has been ongoing since months arround the unity cabinet aims at ammending the power shares in the executive power-cabinet- and thus the power shares in our confessional system, thus ammending the constitution, the Taef Accord which brought relative peace to the country in 1989-1991. The issue came to surface in recent years with the change in internation and regional balance or powers and the emerging crisis in the middle east.The Taef accord back then was refused by two major parties/movements in the country namely Hizbullah and Tayyar (Aoun). Interesting enough is there allience right now! Irrespective of personal views on this issue or favoring the opposition or government at the time, the deadlock seems to be ongoing until the real issue is tackled, that is the constitutional ammendment. Intresting enough as well will be taking a look at the history of this smal country and its continuous turmoil which takes it from one crisis to another, one constitutional ammendment to another. The common pattern in all these phases however is that each major constitutional ammendment which touches the confessional status and power shares among lebanese sects necessitates a round of violence, a civil war at some point which is resolved by international intervention only after sectarian groups show there real power on the ground with each reflecting as well the power of its inspiration as it works its way as a proxy in the country!Where are we heading, I guess I made my point clear now.

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