Thursday, May 15, 2008

The Lebanese Constitution and the Politics of War

On November 29, 2007 I wrote a post titled 'Presidency or Taef, Stability or Civil War' and I just wanted back then to put some ideas in words, ideas I threw in the face of friends back then and looked fictional. They are not for sure! The idea suggested was that there is an internal facet to the 'lebanon crisis' and that is related to a major constitutional ammendment. The idea entails as well the fact that any such ammendment needs a round of violence, a so called civil war or wars. But looking back at the latest events in Lebanon many questions may come to mind.
As one reader asked, 'Is this round of violence enough... or u think it's just the beginning?'
Are we living a truce, a fragile cease fire that will break once the real negotiations begin or alternatively if regional events take place?
Many scenario's for a humble observers like me have equal opportunities as I do not hold the data our dear Lebanese leaders have. I am not suggesting here either that they do have all the necessary data. I will leave the floor then to my speculations and in no way these can give satisfying answers, rather they may only add to the complexity the reader may be facing.
  • Is there a relation between the current events and Bush's trip to the region? And if so, does a retaliation to what happened await the end of that trip. An uprisal among the axis of the good! or is it that the July 2006 war acted as a successful preventive war against Israeli intervention only when Hizbullah- and allies from the axis of the bad- at a later stage decide to change the power shares in Lebanon. There is no need as well to mention the Gaza strip, the preventive war there just before the July war and the aftermath. Bitter the fact that almost a clearly declared objective of the July war from the Israeli side was growing the hatred among the lebanese constituencies agaist Hizbullah. Bitter the fact that such objectives were attained. But Does it really matter? It matters for a Hizbullah leading a long resistance, but what if the decission to give up weapons for a political power share is on the table or will be in the near future?
  • To Doha then... a long breath-taking negotiation no doubt but will it take place swiflty. Will it be as breath-taking literally for the lebanese people as well. A series of small wars here and there. Hope not, but this is one high probability. Another worrying fact is the increasingly unstable region we live in. Will a Doha agreement last as the Taef one or will it break before or even more, are things ripe enough for it to be attained? The worrying factor here is that the span of relative peace or relatively less violent wars, constitutional ammendments bring to this poor country may be shrinking and shriking.
  • There is as well a much worrying fact. If the lovely leaders of our lovely country came to conclusion that that they need no more blood shed to attain an agreement, something which looks a bit wierd, but for the sake of the argument, that can only lead to horrible conclusion. That the main change to the Taef may be redefining the confessional political system, yet in a more blunt way and getting rid of the statement regarding abolishing political sectarianism/confessionalism. More to that will be the implication for dividing Lebanon along sectarian lines with the human cost ahead of such a decision especailly in highly mixed areas across the country and especially the capital.
  • What about the people who were taken by surprise?! I mean the people of our lovely Lebanon who were assuming that the battle for Lebanon is a battle for freedom and independence or resisitance to western or regional ambitions/agendas on both sides. Do they really know what is happening now or are they as blinded as before? Perhaps more, unfortunately.
  • What about the regional battle. What about the Qaeda and co.? Have they recieved an invitation to join or they already on the ground?
  • Last but not least, what about the 'truth'? What about the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and does the current events ring a bell?



[What about the people who were taken by surprise?! I mean the people of our lovely Lebanon who were assuming that the battle for Lebanon is a battle for freedom and independence or resistance to western or regional ambitions/agendas on both sides?]

I loved this part of ur post..
my dear all of them (no only in Lebanon) have their own calculations and accounts!
nobody cares about people

Anonymous said...

I know that politicians are usually by nature sociopathic, but the moral decay that our politicians display is astounding as does the mentality of our people who actually defend them.

It does look like that the Lebanese are more blinded than ever.

Anonymous said...

In regards to the international tribunal, does anyone believe it is going to see the light of day?

Unfortunately in regards to the 'truth' in our country, everyone applies the "To Each His Own" logic. Truth is manipulated to suit everyone's agendas.

my comments are a bit late, and did not add much that is not already known, but I like your articles :D